Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -26.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ISU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +31 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | ISU -27.6 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.3 (+5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -23.2 (+7.8) | 132.0 (-5.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -23.2 (+7.8) | 130.4 (-3.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -25.3 (+5.7) | 129.2 (-2.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -26.0 (+5.0) | 130.8 (-3.8) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ISU | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 3-15 |
| Home | 14-5 | 5-9 |
| Away | 4-6 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 62.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.5 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 11.7 (#29) | -11.4 (#333) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.68 (#1) | -1.74 (#305) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 7.16 (#1) | -2.42 (#308) |
| RPI | 0.588 (#48) | 0.390 (#330) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ISU | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 38.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 25.5% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.7% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.5% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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