Betting Lines
| Spread | UTAH -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTAH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTAH +5 | 105 | Won |
| Massey | UTAH -4.7 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.6 (-25.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTAH -4.8 (+0.2) | 131.7 (-26.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTAH -3.4 (+1.6) | 136.5 (-31.5) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTAH -3.9 (+1.1) | 137.0 (-32.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTAH -3.1 (+1.9) | 134.3 (-29.3) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTAH | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 8-9 |
| Home | 7-9 | 14-4 |
| Away | 2-9 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 59.6 |
| Massey | 6.9 (#67) | 6.7 (#73) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#109) | 1.36 (#75) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#112) | 1.69 (#81) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#45) | 0.568 (#70) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTAH | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.2% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.8% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 76.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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