Betting Lines
| Spread | ORE -16.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORE +9 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | ORE -15.4 (-6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.6 (-16.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORE -13.3 (-4.3) | 147.3 (-20.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORE -13.2 (-4.2) | 141.6 (-14.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORE -12.4 (-3.4) | 144.5 (-17.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ORE -13.1 (-4.1) | 146.6 (-19.6) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORE | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 1-15 |
| Home | 12-5 | 7-9 |
| Away | 6-6 | 0-13 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 77.8 |
| Massey | 5.3 (#95) | -5.6 (#270) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#147) | -0.59 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.01 (#114) | -0.97 (#242) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#130) | 0.454 (#253) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORE | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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