Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -10.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +12 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | SF -12.0 (+0.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.4 (-6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -10.7 (+1.3) | 129.8 (-13.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -11.0 (+1.0) | 130.4 (-14.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -11.9 (+0.1) | 130.2 (-14.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -11.0 (+1.0) | 129.4 (-13.4) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-10 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 7-2 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 63.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.5 | 61.6 |
| Massey | 8.7 (#51) | 1.1 (#146) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.87 (#21) | -0.21 (#203) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.76 (#23) | -0.45 (#214) |
| RPI | 0.643 (#17) | 0.477 (#215) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 77.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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