Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -15.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +13 | 99 | Won |
| Massey | UCSB -19.7 (-6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.1 (-37.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -19.0 (-6.0) | 129.1 (-30.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -16.1 (-3.1) | 139.5 (-40.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -16.7 (-3.7) | 135.7 (-36.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -16.7 (-3.7) | 131.3 (-32.3) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-11 | 7-23 |
| Conference | 8-5 | 5-15 |
| Home | 11-3 | 5-8 |
| Away | 5-7 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 72.0 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#183) | -15.5 (#351) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.37 (#281) | -4.81 (#359) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.77 (#279) | -6.83 (#359) |
| RPI | 0.396 (#326) | 0.295 (#357) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 38.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 27.1% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 28.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 44.5% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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