Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +21 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -9.3 (+11.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (+3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -7.8 (+13.2) | 139.4 (+7.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -8.2 (+12.8) | 142.7 (+4.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -7.1 (+13.9) | 143.0 (+4.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -8.5 (+12.5) | 141.5 (+5.5) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Massey | 9.0 (#47) | -0.3 (#181) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.54 (#66) | -0.02 (#184) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.15 (#63) | 0.11 (#170) |
| RPI | 0.567 (#72) | 0.487 (#199) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 22.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 78.8% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.3% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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