Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -17.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +23 | 111 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -20.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (-31.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -17.6 (+5.4) | 145.2 (-34.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -15.5 (+7.5) | 144.2 (-33.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -16.7 (+6.3) | 147.1 (-36.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -17.0 (+6.0) | 147.0 (-36.0) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 13, 2022 | GMU 73 – 56 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-4 | 6-5 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-16 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 4.2 (#106) | -11.3 (#332) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#166) | -1.15 (#263) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#151) | -1.57 (#269) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#145) | 0.421 (#295) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 14.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 56.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 78.8% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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