Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | GMU -1200 AMER +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +17 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -7.1 (+9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.3 (-13.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -5.5 (+11.5) | 140.9 (-11.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -4.4 (+12.6) | 141.5 (-12.5) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 22, 2021 | GMU 67 – 44 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-2 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 9-9 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 65.9 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#222) | 2.6 (#114) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#168) | -0.41 (#239) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#171) | -0.46 (#208) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#99) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 44.4% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 4.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.7% | 62.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 64.0% | 80.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 11.1% |
Game Analysis
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