Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -18.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | ND -2000 AMCC +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +10 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | ND -9.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.4 (+20.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -10.6 (-0.6) | 139.0 (+17.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -6.8 (+3.2) | 138.6 (+17.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ND -6.4 (+3.6) | 140.2 (+15.8) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -6.7 (+3.3) | 139.5 (+16.5) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | AMCC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 7-7 |
| Home | 14-1 | 9-4 |
| Away | 7-5 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 2-5 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#107) | -1.2 (#203) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#176) | 1.57 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#153) | 1.91 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#160) | 0.510 (#157) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | AMCC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 27.8% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 28.7% |
| DRB% | 77.7% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 29.7% |
Game Analysis
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