If I had my time again / I would do it all the same. "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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54–13 on winners spread MAE 8.3 67 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Villanova @ Pennsylvania -7.3 147.2 24% 71–56 ✓
Wagner @ Seton Hall +7.2 133.5 70% 63–85 ✓
Dartmouth @ Vermont +5.0 125.4 68% 65–83 ✓
Lehigh @ Yale +11.9 141.9 84% 72–82 ✓
Princeton @ Hofstra +5.6 155.6 70% 77–81 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Morehead State +5.4 132.5 71% 51–59 ✓
UT Martin @ Middle Tennessee +14.2 140.0 88% 61–73 ✓
Stetson @ Florida Atlantic +3.4 138.4 63% 73–83 ✓
Bucknell @ Saint Francis +9.6 155.1 82% 67–93 ✓
Holy Cross @ Central Connecticut +5.8 138.8 71% 67–73 ✓
William & Mary @ Navy +20.8 131.3 90% 56–75 ✓
Norfolk State @ UNC Wilmington +1.8 136.5 50% 74–69 ✗
South Carolina @ Coastal Carolina -1.7 134.4 39% 56–80 ✗
Cincinnati @ Miami (OH) +4.7 144.2 68% 59–58 ✗
Richmond @ Wofford +6.8 150.5 77% 73–64 ✗
La Salle @ Temple +8.0 139.5 76% 57–73 ✓
Boston University @ George Washington -4.3 137.2 33% 56–54 ✓
Chicago State @ Loyola Maryland +8.1 133.6 79% 64–78 ✓
Rhode Island @ Harvard +3.7 144.5 62% 64–57 ✗
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Fordham +11.3 145.1 83% 46–68 ✓
Brown @ UMass Lowell +8.5 134.1 78% 73–63 ✗
Columbia @ UMBC +12.9 149.3 87% 60–98 ✓
Alabama State @ Dayton +7.0 145.0 74% 54–93 ✓
Binghamton @ Saint Joseph's +5.1 145.0 68% 57–79 ✓
Coppin State @ St. Bonaventure +11.6 136.6 86% 81–93 ✓
Mercer @ Kennesaw State +4.3 143.0 68% 73–71 ✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ Florida International +5.4 141.8 72% 61–77 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Evansville -2.6 132.0 40% 54–52 ✓
Iona @ Marist -2.7 142.4 38% 78–71 ✓
Ball State @ Western Illinois +11.0 151.0 84% 80–93 ✓
Bowling Green @ Duquesne +4.9 149.9 67% 78–70 ✗
Marshall @ Akron +2.6 143.3 57% 86–88 ✓
Memphis @ Georgia -7.6 141.7 21% 79–82 ✗
Louisville @ Michigan State +10.7 131.6 81% 64–73 ✓
Nebraska @ NC State +7.0 148.2 77% 100–104 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Maryland -5.5 134.7 25% 62–58 ✓
Texas Southern @ Louisiana Tech +6.0 146.1 71% 60–87 ✓
Hartford @ Winthrop +8.8 153.4 79% 75–82 ✓
East Tennessee State @ UAB +13.2 140.4 84% 56–70 ✓
Washington State @ Arizona State -2.5 147.1 39% 51–29 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Arkansas +22.9 149.1 91% 60–97 ✓
Florida @ Oklahoma +2.6 131.9 54% 67–74 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Iowa State +21.8 141.7 91% 64–83 ✓
UCF @ Auburn +14.0 147.2 87% 68–85 ✓
Southern Miss @ South Alabama +13.2 138.0 86% 55–85 ✓
Wichita State @ Oklahoma State +10.2 137.2 81% 60–51 ✗
UNLV @ SMU +6.1 136.2 70% 64–83 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ UT Rio Grande Valley +3.8 153.7 63% 83–77 ✗
UAlbany @ Kansas State +13.3 133.7 87% 43–71 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Bradley +0.5 139.3 51% 69–71 ✓
Missouri State @ Illinois State -6.1 157.5 33% 74–79 ✗
Indiana State @ Loyola Chicago +15.3 147.9 90% 76–88 ✓
Ohio @ LSU +18.1 141.8 89% 51–66 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Northern Illinois +10.0 124.8 84% 45–55 ✓
Texas Tech @ Providence +2.7 142.1 59% 68–72 ✓
BYU @ Utah Valley +1.7 143.6 46% 65–72 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ North Alabama +15.7 138.7 90% 58–72 ✓
Little Rock @ Colorado State +17.2 152.6 90% 55–86 ✓
Pacific @ UC Davis +6.7 139.3 73% 57–63 ✓
Wisconsin @ Georgia Tech -0.4 135.2 41% 70–66 ✓
Michigan @ North Carolina +4.3 151.0 68% 51–72 ✓
Miami @ Penn State +10.5 139.6 82% 63–58 ✗
Colorado @ UCLA +11.9 153.7 86% 61–73 ✓
UC Riverside @ Oregon +4.8 131.6 66% 65–71 ✓
San Diego @ Fresno State +4.5 130.1 67% 43–63 ✓
McNeese @ Seattle U +15.3 144.0 88% 62–78 ✓
Utah @ USC +8.7 137.8 80% 73–93 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.