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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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22–6 on winners spread MAE 8.7 28 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Drexel	+10.1	144.0	81%	65–86	✓
Sacred Heart @ Lafayette	+5.9	141.0	69%	74–67	✗
Long Island University @ Towson	+13.3	139.3	87%	63–72	✓
Delaware @ Delaware State	-8.4	150.1	18%	59–48	✓
Missouri @ Liberty	+7.6	130.3	76%	45–66	✓
Wright State @ Purdue Fort Wayne	+5.9	149.0	73%	86–73	✗
Northern Kentucky @ Cleveland State	+2.7	136.2	65%	58–72	✓
Detroit Mercy @ IU Indianapolis	-3.6	128.8	40%	69–45	✓
Montana State @ Northern Colorado	+3.7	146.9	70%	75–77	✓
Oral Roberts @ TCU	+13.1	147.2	88%	63–71	✓
Lamar @ Mississippi State	+20.7	142.6	91%	60–75	✓
Jacksonville @ Charleston Southern	-7.7	135.4	21%	67–56	✓
Youngstown State @ Milwaukee	-2.4	136.6	39%	70–68	✓
Robert Morris @ Green Bay	+3.8	139.8	68%	58–70	✓
Oakland @ UIC	-2.2	138.6	42%	81–77	✓
Lipscomb @ Belmont	+8.5	155.8	77%	65–94	✓
Northern Arizona @ Weber State	+13.9	143.1	88%	44–67	✓
Portland State @ Idaho State	+2.0	128.4	60%	63–55	✗
Southern Utah @ Eastern Washington	+5.0	154.3	74%	89–76	✗
UTSA @ Grand Canyon	+16.2	137.1	89%	71–74	✓
Saint Mary's @ Utah State	+8.4	137.0	78%	60–58	✗
Valparaiso @ Drake	+10.7	138.1	86%	66–73	✓
Denver @ Wyoming	+19.7	140.7	91%	64–77	✓
Montana @ Sacramento State	+1.6	138.7	62%	65–58	✗
Cal Poly @ California Baptist	+12.1	137.7	87%	55–64	✓
Eastern Michigan @ UC San Diego	+9.5	143.2	83%	74–83	✓
Oregon State @ California	+4.8	137.5	71%	61–73	✓
Notre Dame @ Boston College	+4.3	135.5	71%	57–73	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.