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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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53–15 on winners spread MAE 9.5 68 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Florida A&M @ Kentucky +33.6 137.0 91% 68–88 ✓
Youngstown State @ Central Michigan -3.4 154.3 38% 76–65 ✓
Saint Francis @ Robert Morris +12.9 141.4 86% 66–77 ✓
Ohio @ Delaware +4.5 141.2 67% 95–76 ✗
Binghamton @ Niagara +12.4 131.3 84% 67–73 ✓
Murray State @ Middle Tennessee +6.2 139.7 71% 67–83 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Florida Atlantic +21.3 138.5 90% 52–67 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Cincinnati +8.6 157.3 82% 54–72 ✓
Mercer @ Troy +11.0 141.0 82% 82–79 ✗
Incarnate Word @ Florida International +6.3 139.3 77% 74–79 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Ball State +11.9 139.2 85% 54–58 ✓
Stetson @ UCF +14.2 137.5 88% 58–73 ✓
Navy @ VCU +4.7 143.0 70% 52–74 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Northern Iowa +2.4 135.4 62% 52–62 ✓
Bucknell @ Richmond +8.2 136.3 77% 71–81 ✓
New Hampshire @ Brown +6.0 130.5 71% 51–67 ✓
Canisius @ Florida Gulf Coast +14.6 142.8 88% 81–84 ✓
Southern Utah @ Colorado +13.0 156.2 86% 78–86 ✓
UT Arlington @ California -0.2 125.1 54% 51–73 ✗
Michigan @ North Carolina +3.6 155.4 63% 76–80 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Southeast Missouri State -1.8 137.2 38% 70–68 ✓
Samford @ Belmont +4.0 153.2 63% 56–79 ✓
New Mexico State @ Kent State +5.1 141.9 65% 63–73 ✓
Clemson @ Georgia Tech +2.4 147.0 60% 79–66 ✗
McNeese @ Houston +33.9 127.0 91% 44–83 ✓
Louisiana @ Texas +16.0 148.8 87% 72–100 ✓
Southern @ SE Louisiana +2.9 150.8 62% 62–80 ✓
Alabama State @ Memphis +25.1 148.3 91% 61–83 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Tulane +18.2 139.6 91% 63–84 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Saint Louis +6.8 147.6 73% 69–67 ✗
East Tennessee State @ LSU +12.3 140.6 85% 68–72 ✓
Bellarmine @ Evansville +0.3 133.0 49% 61–73 ✓
Notre Dame @ Florida State +1.1 141.8 58% 72–73 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Wyoming -12.2 135.2 17% 66–54 ✓
Maine @ Ohio State +19.1 146.9 89% 61–95 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Purdue +31.6 147.8 91% 53–74 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Arkansas +19.1 157.2 90% 51–85 ✓
TCU @ Utah +8.8 142.0 72% 75–71 ✗
Auburn @ Washington +2.9 141.2 62% 84–61 ✗
Sacramento State @ Cal State Fullerton +0.8 136.8 61% 49–59 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ UTEP +6.3 139.6 73% 62–75 ✓
Arizona State @ San Francisco -2.2 137.0 46% 60–97 ✗
Denver @ Oregon State +4.6 139.9 70% 52–57 ✓
Tulsa @ Loyola Marymount +10.6 143.5 84% 64–76 ✓
Idaho @ Long Beach State +6.5 148.5 74% 75–82 ✓
Colorado State @ USC -0.8 142.7 49% 64–73 ✗
Holy Cross @ Sacred Heart +7.2 141.0 74% 62–66 ✓
Towson @ Bryant +2.5 151.3 62% 59–69 ✓
VMI @ Fordham +12.7 150.2 87% 77–80 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Indiana State +16.7 157.7 86% 67–57 ✗
Siena @ American University +8.2 137.5 77% 64–61 ✗
Chicago State @ Minnesota +5.1 136.2 68% 55–58 ✓
North Florida @ Bethune-Cookman -4.0 146.1 41% 87–85 ✓
Cornell @ Colgate +1.4 160.2 55% 91–80 ✗
UNC Greensboro @ Eastern Kentucky +1.8 133.6 54% 64–68 ✓
Jackson State @ Stephen F. Austin +11.6 152.2 85% 69–80 ✓
Little Rock @ Arkansas State +6.5 137.8 71% 75–77 ✓
Lindenwood @ Utah Tech +12.2 148.0 87% 64–95 ✓
Iona @ SMU -14.5 141.3 16% 81–85 ✗
San Diego @ Cal State Northridge -1.4 145.2 47% 78–83 ✗
Alabama A&M @ Vanderbilt +12.7 141.1 86% 62–70 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Penn State +13.2 145.1 87% 68–77 ✓
Boise State @ Santa Clara -0.5 135.6 44% 58–73 ✗
Portland @ UC Riverside +1.7 147.7 62% 65–76 ✓
Akron @ Bradley +8.2 129.4 76% 55–74 ✓
Seattle U @ Utah State +6.5 151.4 73% 56–84 ✓
Stony Brook @ West Virginia +27.6 140.3 91% 64–75 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Maryland +20.9 132.1 90% 45–75 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.