What ever happened to Leon Trotsky? "No More Heroes" - The Stranglers
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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40–14 on winners spread MAE 9.7 54 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Jackson State @ Alabama +28.4 157.8 91% 64–84 ✓
Elon @ Indiana +25.1 144.5 90% 72–96 ✓
Marquette @ Providence +0.7 154.7 52% 98–103 ✓
The Citadel @ North Carolina Central +10.1 144.4 83% 74–81 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Temple +11.6 136.4 87% 86–78 ✗
South Carolina Upstate @ Kennesaw State +11.3 141.4 85% 56–65 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Purdue Fort Wayne +7.3 147.7 76% 59–83 ✓
Alcorn State @ Dayton +13.6 132.0 87% 46–88 ✓
Army @ Central Connecticut +3.2 141.4 60% 66–55 ✗
Dartmouth @ Massachusetts +13.1 137.4 86% 57–68 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Little Rock +1.2 157.3 67% 66–75 ✓
Queens University @ Nebraska +7.1 140.8 75% 65–75 ✓
Northwestern State @ Baylor +19.0 155.5 89% 48–58 ✓
Idaho State @ Grand Canyon +12.4 134.5 86% 66–68 ✓
Pacific @ Lamar -6.7 150.7 19% 74–65 ✓
Air Force @ Northern Colorado +1.3 146.4 54% 67–65 ✗
Montana State @ Arizona +19.0 155.8 88% 64–85 ✓
Virginia @ Miami +1.1 140.2 66% 64–66 ✓
Seton Hall @ Xavier +9.4 146.4 82% 70–73 ✓
Montana @ Gonzaga +15.4 146.3 87% 75–85 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ New Mexico +15.0 145.5 88% 63–94 ✓
Lindenwood @ BYU +13.3 148.5 86% 61–90 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Syracuse +1.3 143.2 53% 84–82 ✗
UIC @ Northwestern +14.9 130.2 88% 54–92 ✓
Florida @ Oklahoma -2.1 142.1 45% 53–62 ✗
Fresno State @ Cal State Bakersfield +0.6 125.4 45% 56–48 ✗
Cal Poly @ San José State +6.5 129.8 75% 43–65 ✓
San Diego @ UC Riverside +7.9 150.6 76% 92–84 ✗
Harvard @ UC Irvine +12.1 138.3 85% 62–57 ✗
Utah Valley @ Oregon +9.8 140.6 78% 77–72 ✗
UC San Diego @ San Diego State +20.7 136.2 90% 46–62 ✓
James Madison @ Coppin State -9.8 169.6 28% 100–107 ✗
Stonehill @ Valparaiso +2.7 144.8 60% 67–77 ✓
Northeastern @ Davidson +10.1 141.0 81% 73–70 ✗
North Dakota State @ St. Thomas +10.6 148.5 83% 68–78 ✓
Jacksonville State @ South Alabama +11.3 142.4 85% 66–71 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Campbell -0.7 134.0 48% 74–66 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Howard +0.2 134.1 54% 62–63 ✓
Lafayette @ La Salle +4.6 132.7 57% 90–65 ✗
Winthrop @ Duquesne +9.6 153.8 82% 57–74 ✓
Houston Christian @ Texas Tech +30.2 153.4 91% 67–111 ✓
Radford @ Kansas State +16.2 141.7 88% 65–73 ✓
Chattanooga @ Georgia +5.8 141.3 73% 65–72 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Iowa +26.3 150.1 90% 92–83 ✗
Boston University @ UMass Lowell +12.4 143.1 85% 60–68 ✓
George Mason @ Old Dominion +4.4 134.1 71% 77–78 ✓
UC Davis @ UCLA +21.2 150.7 91% 54–81 ✓
Norfolk State @ Nevada +12.5 140.4 86% 66–78 ✓
Austin Peay @ Tennessee +28.6 127.6 91% 44–86 ✓
High Point @ East Carolina +3.0 154.2 67% 49–60 ✓
App State @ UC Santa Barbara +3.5 135.7 65% 50–61 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Boston College -9.3 135.2 21% 65–70 ✗
St. John's @ Villanova +1.4 150.0 58% 63–78 ✓
Oakland @ Michigan State +19.7 148.2 90% 54–67 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.