Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | PROV -111 MARQ -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +5 | 201 | Won |
| Massey | MARQ -1.5 (+6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.6 (+45.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -0.4 (+4.6) | 155.6 (+45.4) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -0.5 (+4.5) | 150.8 (+50.2) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -0.8 (+4.2) | 153.4 (+47.6) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -0.7 (+4.3) | 154.7 (+46.3) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | MARQ 78 – 56 PROV |
| Jan 19, 2026 | MARQ 105 – 104 PROV |
| Feb 26, 2025 | MARQ 82 – 52 PROV |
| Dec 31, 2024 | MARQ 78 – 50 PROV |
| Mar 16, 2024 | MARQ 79 – 68 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 29-7 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 17-3 |
| Home | 15-2 | 16-1 |
| Away | 6-6 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 79.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#75) | 13.1 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#92) | 2.06 (#37) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.48 (#94) | 3.11 (#27) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#130) | 0.584 (#52) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 38.1% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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