Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | UCSB -188 APP +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +11 | 111 | Won |
| Massey | UCSB -5.2 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.8 (-17.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -4.2 (+6.8) | 134.5 (-23.5) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -4.2 (+6.8) | 131.1 (-20.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -4.0 (+7.0) | 134.8 (-23.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -3.5 (+7.5) | 135.7 (-24.7) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-3 | 10-7 |
| Away | 10-4 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 66.1 |
| Massey | 3.3 (#115) | -1.9 (#214) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#93) | -1.06 (#280) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.08 (#107) | -1.40 (#277) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#128) | 0.429 (#291) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 22.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 76.7% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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