Betting Lines
| Spread | UCLA -23.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCLA +27 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | UCLA -23.3 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.9 (-15.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCLA -23.2 (+3.8) | 149.3 (-14.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCLA -22.9 (+4.1) | 151.7 (-16.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCLA -19.9 (+7.1) | 150.2 (-15.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCLA -21.2 (+5.8) | 150.7 (-15.7) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCLA | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-6 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 11-8 |
| Home | 17-0 | 10-4 |
| Away | 9-2 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.7 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 19.7 (#4) | 1.3 (#154) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.54 (#23) | -0.18 (#194) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.56 (#17) | -0.13 (#185) |
| RPI | 0.631 (#19) | 0.486 (#205) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCLA | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.1% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 39.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.61 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 15.9% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.2% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.0% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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