Betting Lines
| Spread | NEB -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | NEB -900 QUC +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEB +10 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | NEB -7.9 (+2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.0 (+1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEB -7.3 (+2.7) | 138.7 (+1.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEB -5.3 (+4.7) | 138.2 (+1.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEB -6.9 (+3.1) | 140.2 (-0.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEB -7.1 (+2.9) | 140.8 (-0.8) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEB | QUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-9 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 75.5 |
| Massey | 5.2 (#91) | 2.1 (#131) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.97 (#100) | 1.37 (#75) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#85) | 0.95 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#90) | 0.562 (#75) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEB | QUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 37.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.5% | 15.9% |
Game Analysis
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