Betting Lines
| Spread | DUQ -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | DUQ -600 WIN +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUQ +17 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | DUQ -11.6 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.0 (-24.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUQ -11.7 (+5.3) | 152.3 (-21.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUQ -9.5 (+7.5) | 145.3 (-14.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUQ -9.1 (+7.9) | 152.8 (-21.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUQ -9.6 (+7.4) | 153.8 (-22.8) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUQ | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 16-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#134) | -4.7 (#261) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#101) | -0.66 (#244) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#110) | -0.72 (#228) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#100) | 0.469 (#228) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUQ | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 39.0% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.1 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 37.6% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 31.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 65.6% | 63.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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