Betting Lines
| Spread | LR -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Under |
| Money | LR -125 CARK +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LR +9 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | LR -3.1 (+5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.2 (-26.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LR -2.0 (+7.0) | 156.9 (-15.9) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LR -1.6 (+7.4) | 155.4 (-14.4) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LR -1.4 (+7.6) | 157.0 (-16.0) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LR -1.2 (+7.8) | 157.3 (-16.3) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2025 | CARK 85 – 47 LR |
| Dec 5, 2024 | LR 63 – 57 CARK |
| Dec 8, 2023 | CARK 75 – 71 LR |
| Nov 15, 2022 | CARK 82 – 71 LR |
| Dec 6, 2020 | LR 86 – 83 CARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LR | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 4-14 |
| Home | 8-5 | 6-8 |
| Away | 2-16 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.3 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.9 | 82.4 |
| Massey | -10.4 (#333) | -8.7 (#316) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.52 (#339) | -0.67 (#247) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.98 (#347) | -1.05 (#254) |
| RPI | 0.361 (#352) | 0.442 (#270) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LR | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 15.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.6% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 63.9% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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