Betting Lines
| Spread | CARK -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | CARK -120 LR +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CARK +11 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | CARK -8.9 (+2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.4 (-0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CARK -3.2 (+7.8) | 147.9 (+5.1) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LR -0.8 (+11.8) | 147.4 (+5.6) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CARK -3.1 (+7.9) | 146.8 (+6.2) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2025 | CARK 85 – 47 LR |
| Dec 5, 2024 | LR 63 – 57 CARK |
| Dec 8, 2023 | CARK 75 – 71 LR |
| Dec 21, 2022 | LR 75 – 66 CARK |
| Dec 6, 2020 | LR 86 – 83 CARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CARK | LR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 6-12 |
| Home | 6-8 | 8-5 |
| Away | 2-13 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 75.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.4 | 80.9 |
| Massey | -8.2 (#315) | -6.4 (#298) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.27 (#317) | -0.12 (#185) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.29 (#325) | -0.21 (#188) |
| RPI | 0.000 (#320) | 0.375 (#250) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CARK | LR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 30.1% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 13.3% | 16.7% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 25.0 |
| OREB / G | 16.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.57 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 32.9% | 43.0% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 10.1% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 22.2% |
| FT Rate | 9.6% | 12.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 69.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 25.2% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 53.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 32.7% |
Game Analysis
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