Betting Lines
| Spread | LR -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | LR -580 CARK +420 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LR +6 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | LR -12.6 (-6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.7 (-17.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LR -9.7 (-3.7) | 139.0 (-19.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LR -11.3 (-5.3) | 139.3 (-19.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LR -9.6 (-3.6) | 138.5 (-18.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LR -10.3 (-4.3) | 138.1 (-18.1) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2025 | CARK 85 – 47 LR |
| Dec 8, 2023 | CARK 75 – 71 LR |
| Dec 21, 2022 | LR 75 – 66 CARK |
| Nov 15, 2022 | CARK 82 – 71 LR |
| Dec 6, 2020 | LR 86 – 83 CARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LR | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 4-14 |
| Home | 9-5 | 7-7 |
| Away | 9-7 | 1-16 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 79.4 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#212) | -10.3 (#332) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#149) | -1.85 (#311) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#149) | -2.15 (#289) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#137) | 0.380 (#333) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LR | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 38.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 61.6% | 65.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.8% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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