Betting Lines
| Spread | CARK -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | CARK -166 LR +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CARK +38 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | CARK -7.1 (+30.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.9 (-4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CARK -5.4 (+32.6) | 133.9 (-1.9) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CARK -3.0 (+35.0) | 134.9 (-2.9) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CARK -5.2 (+32.8) | 134.5 (-2.5) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CARK -5.7 (+32.3) | 135.0 (-3.0) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 5, 2024 | LR 63 – 57 CARK |
| Dec 8, 2023 | CARK 75 – 71 LR |
| Dec 21, 2022 | LR 75 – 66 CARK |
| Nov 15, 2022 | CARK 82 – 71 LR |
| Dec 6, 2020 | LR 86 – 83 CARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CARK | LR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 9-11 |
| Home | 14-1 | 7-6 |
| Away | 6-10 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.3 | 68.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -8.4 (#297) | -10.5 (#320) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.09 (#317) | -1.40 (#285) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.45 (#325) | -2.17 (#292) |
| RPI | 0.426 (#284) | 0.382 (#332) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CARK | LR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.6% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 25.7% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 15.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 60.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 65.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.