Betting Lines
| Spread | LR -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | CARK +170 LR -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CARK +4 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | LR -9.1 (+13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.0 (-18.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LR -8.9 (+12.9) | 158.9 (-12.9) | 26% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LR -5.8 (+9.8) | 157.7 (-11.7) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LR -8.9 (+12.9) | 158.1 (-12.1) | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LR -9.7 (+13.7) | 158.6 (-12.6) | 21% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2025 | CARK 85 – 47 LR |
| Dec 5, 2024 | LR 63 – 57 CARK |
| Dec 21, 2022 | LR 75 – 66 CARK |
| Nov 15, 2022 | CARK 82 – 71 LR |
| Dec 6, 2020 | LR 86 – 83 CARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CARK | LR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 14-4 |
| Home | 5-10 | 14-4 |
| Away | 4-13 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.3 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -14.9 (#355) | -0.3 (#177) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.88 (#362) | -0.24 (#198) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -7.15 (#362) | -0.27 (#199) |
| RPI | 0.303 (#361) | 0.476 (#211) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CARK | LR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.0% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 64.5% | 63.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 33.3% |
Game Analysis
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