Betting Lines
| Spread | LR -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.0 Over |
| Money | LR -600 CARK +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LR +3 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | LR -9.6 (-6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.5 (+17.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LR -9.4 (-6.4) | 146.6 (+22.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LR -8.7 (-5.7) | 149.3 (+19.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LR -7.3 (-4.3) | 145.0 (+24.0) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2025 | CARK 85 – 47 LR |
| Dec 5, 2024 | LR 63 – 57 CARK |
| Dec 8, 2023 | CARK 75 – 71 LR |
| Dec 21, 2022 | LR 75 – 66 CARK |
| Nov 15, 2022 | CARK 82 – 71 LR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LR | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#137) | -1.3 (#158) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#132) | -0.58 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#124) | -0.58 (#168) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#86) | 0.365 (#235) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LR | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.8% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 47.4% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 26.8% | 34.1% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 31.1% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.0% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 76.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 29.9% |
Game Analysis
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