Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | GCU -1200 IDST +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +2 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -15.1 (-13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.1 (+7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -12.8 (-10.8) | 134.3 (-0.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -15.3 (-13.3) | 133.7 (+0.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -12.5 (-10.5) | 133.8 (+0.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -12.4 (-10.4) | 134.5 (-0.5) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 6-5 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#103) | -6.4 (#286) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#133) | -2.40 (#335) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#119) | -2.22 (#314) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#116) | 0.377 (#345) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.9% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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