Betting Lines
| Spread | ORE -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | ORE -700 UVU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVU +5 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | ORE -11.3 (-16.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.9 (+12.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORE -8.6 (-13.6) | 138.4 (+10.6) | 74% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORE -8.4 (-13.4) | 139.1 (+9.9) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORE -9.7 (-14.7) | 139.2 (+9.8) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ORE -9.8 (-14.8) | 140.6 (+8.4) | 78% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORE | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 15-3 |
| Home | 15-6 | 14-1 |
| Away | 4-6 | 12-5 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 9.9 (#51) | 3.5 (#110) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.13 (#90) | 0.73 (#119) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.57 (#88) | 1.89 (#70) |
| RPI | 0.560 (#79) | 0.529 (#125) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORE | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.8% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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