Betting Lines
| Spread | TTU -32.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TTU +44 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | TTU -31.8 (+12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (+33.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TTU -32.8 (+11.2) | 152.0 (+26.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TTU -28.1 (+15.9) | 152.2 (+25.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TTU -25.4 (+18.6) | 153.9 (+24.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TTU -30.2 (+13.8) | 153.4 (+24.6) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TTU | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-6 | 8-8 |
| Away | 3-7 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L4 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 85.0 |
| Massey | 9.6 (#54) | -17.3 (#361) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#111) | -4.53 (#363) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#109) | -6.42 (#363) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#140) | 0.363 (#351) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TTU | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 29.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 61.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.6% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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