Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | UNM -3300 PV +1700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +31 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | UNM -15.8 (+15.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (+11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -14.5 (+16.5) | 146.5 (+10.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -14.5 (+16.5) | 144.6 (+12.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -15.1 (+15.9) | 145.5 (+11.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -15.0 (+16.0) | 145.5 (+11.5) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | PV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-5 | 9-3 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.2 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 10.0 (#50) | -0.8 (#186) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.76 (#4) | -0.79 (#256) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.29 (#3) | -0.55 (#216) |
| RPI | 0.643 (#13) | 0.458 (#251) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | PV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 34.8% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 34.3% |
Game Analysis
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