Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | NEV -600 NORF +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +12 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | NEV -15.4 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.2 (+2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -11.7 (+0.3) | 140.7 (+3.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -10.8 (+1.2) | 141.6 (+2.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -11.8 (+0.2) | 140.8 (+3.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -12.5 (-0.5) | 140.4 (+3.6) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 9-5 |
| Home | 14-1 | 10-2 |
| Away | 6-7 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 8.2 (#64) | -2.3 (#221) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.96 (#42) | 1.08 (#94) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.30 (#58) | 1.09 (#105) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#23) | 0.540 (#106) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 22.7% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 34.0% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.4% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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