We're only making plans for Nigel. "Making Plans for Nigel" - XTC
Ferrell Center · December 21, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread BAY -25.5 Away covered
O/U 154.5 Under
Model Predictions
Spread Total BAY win
Actual BAY +10 106 Won
Massey BAY -22.1 (-12.1) — —
Massey Totals — 157.5 (-51.5) —
Bradley-Terry — — 90% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 96% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ BAY -22.1 (-12.1) 151.6 (-45.6) 90% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML BAY -17.4 (-7.4) 157.1 (-51.1) 90% ✓
Baseline ML BAY -19.0 (-9.0) 155.5 (-49.5) 89% ✓
Baseline Plus ML BAY -19.1 (-9.1) 152.2 (-46.2) 89% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 2, 2023 BAY 91 – 40 NWST
Dec 29, 2021 BAY 104 – 68 NWST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings BAY NWST
Overall 23-11 22-11
Conference 11-7 13-5
Home 14-3 10-3
Away 5-5 10-7
Neutral 4-3 2-1
Last 5 4-1 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 77.0 74.5
Avg Pts Against 70.3 72.2
Massey 14.6 (#11) -2.6 (#223)
Bradley-Terry 2.86 (#13) 1.60 (#58)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.37 (#23) 1.24 (#103)
RPI 0.624 (#24) 0.582 (#54)
Shooting & Four Factors BAY NWST
FG% 48.2% 40.6%
3PT% 35.8% 36.2%
REB / G 35.7 34.6
OREB / G 12.2 14.7
AST / TO 1.31 0.94
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 56.6% 47.4%
TOV% 19.0% 15.8%
ORB% 37.0% 34.3%
FT Rate 25.1% 17.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.6% 53.4%
Opp TOV% 24.3% 23.1%
DRB% 70.8% 63.6%
Opp FT Rate 27.4% 33.3%

Game Analysis

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