Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -25.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +10 | 106 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -22.1 (-12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.5 (-51.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -22.1 (-12.1) | 151.6 (-45.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -17.4 (-7.4) | 157.1 (-51.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -19.0 (-9.0) | 155.5 (-49.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -19.1 (-9.1) | 152.2 (-46.2) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 2, 2023 | BAY 91 – 40 NWST |
| Dec 29, 2021 | BAY 104 – 68 NWST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-3 | 10-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 14.6 (#11) | -2.6 (#223) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.86 (#13) | 1.60 (#58) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.37 (#23) | 1.24 (#103) |
| RPI | 0.624 (#24) | 0.582 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 14.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.3% | 23.1% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 63.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 33.3% |
Game Analysis
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