Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | USA -333 JXST +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +5 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | USA -14.1 (-9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.4 (-0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -10.6 (-5.6) | 141.8 (-4.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -8.9 (-3.9) | 139.7 (-2.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -11.3 (-6.3) | 140.9 (-3.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -11.3 (-6.3) | 142.4 (-5.4) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 20, 2025 | USA 71 – 65 JXST |
| Dec 8, 2024 | USA 76 – 74 JXST |
| Dec 1, 2023 | JXST 70 – 52 USA |
| Dec 5, 2021 | USA 74 – 64 JXST |
| Nov 29, 2020 | JXST 77 – 73 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-10 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#104) | -5.4 (#269) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#179) | -0.61 (#238) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#142) | -1.06 (#256) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#115) | 0.475 (#220) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 19.5% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 13.8% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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