Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Over |
| Money | USA -160 JXST +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JXST +4 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | USA -5.8 (-9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.4 (+14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -2.5 (-6.5) | 134.9 (+15.1) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -1.5 (-5.5) | 133.8 (+16.2) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -1.8 (-5.8) | 134.1 (+15.9) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 20, 2025 | USA 71 – 65 JXST |
| Dec 8, 2024 | USA 76 – 74 JXST |
| Dec 1, 2023 | JXST 70 – 52 USA |
| Dec 21, 2022 | USA 71 – 66 JXST |
| Dec 5, 2021 | USA 74 – 64 JXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-1 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#183) | 1.5 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#111) | 0.46 (#74) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#112) | 0.61 (#89) |
| RPI | 0.250 (#122) | 0.281 (#121) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 56.1% | 33.1% |
| 3PT% | 53.3% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 46.0 |
| OREB / G | 4.0 | 16.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.41 | 0.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 65.9% | 39.4% |
| TOV% | 26.8% | 26.1% |
| ORB% | 19.0% | 36.0% |
| FT Rate | 34.1% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 40.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.5% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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