Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -21.0 Push |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +21 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | ARIZ -19.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.2 (-14.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -18.5 (+2.5) | 152.3 (-3.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARIZ -14.5 (+6.5) | 153.8 (-4.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -18.0 (+3.0) | 156.2 (-7.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -19.0 (+2.0) | 155.8 (-6.8) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 15-3 |
| Home | 15-2 | 12-1 |
| Away | 6-4 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 7-1 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.9 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 17.2 (#5) | 2.6 (#120) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.11 (#10) | 0.43 (#143) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.73 (#14) | 0.57 (#133) |
| RPI | 0.640 (#16) | 0.517 (#148) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.7% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 42.1 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.4% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 30.6% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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