Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCO -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | UNCO -120 AF +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AF +2 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCO -0.6 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (-13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCO -2.8 (-4.8) | 140.3 (-8.3) | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCO -2.1 (-4.1) | 140.5 (-8.5) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCO -1.9 (-3.9) | 146.1 (-14.1) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCO -1.3 (-3.3) | 146.4 (-14.4) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2025 | UNCO 71 – 53 AF |
| Dec 17, 2024 | UNCO 81 – 76 AF |
| Dec 21, 2023 | UNCO 83 – 79 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCO | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 5-13 |
| Home | 6-7 | 10-9 |
| Away | 3-12 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 67.1 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#242) | 0.8 (#158) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#108) | -0.36 (#207) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#113) | -0.52 (#213) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#98) | 0.437 (#279) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCO | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 39.2% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 6.7 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 57.0% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 21.4% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 44.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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