Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCO -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | UNCO -460 AF +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCO +5 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | UNCO -12.0 (-7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (+13.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCO -8.4 (-3.4) | 141.0 (+16.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | UNCO -9.1 (-4.1) | 139.0 (+18.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | UNCO -9.0 (-4.0) | 141.9 (+15.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCO -10.4 (-5.4) | 141.8 (+15.2) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2025 | UNCO 71 – 53 AF |
| Dec 21, 2023 | UNCO 83 – 79 AF |
| Dec 21, 2022 | AF 67 – 65 UNCO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCO | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 1-19 |
| Home | 13-2 | 3-13 |
| Away | 9-7 | 0-14 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 61.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 73.7 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#137) | -6.1 (#277) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#149) | -1.90 (#322) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#134) | -2.30 (#309) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#132) | 0.388 (#334) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCO | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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