Betting Lines
| Spread | AF -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
| Money | AF -335 UNCO +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCO +4 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | AF -8.8 (-12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.3 (+22.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AF -8.8 (-12.8) | 140.0 (+22.0) | 75% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | AF -7.2 (-11.2) | 138.8 (+23.2) | 75% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | AF -8.0 (-12.0) | 137.6 (+24.4) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AF -7.9 (-11.9) | 138.9 (+23.1) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2025 | UNCO 71 – 53 AF |
| Dec 17, 2024 | UNCO 81 – 76 AF |
| Dec 21, 2022 | AF 67 – 65 UNCO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 12-6 |
| Home | 4-12 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-8 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 78.2 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#187) | -4.9 (#267) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.00 (#178) | -0.92 (#266) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.04 (#182) | -1.59 (#282) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#258) | 0.450 (#261) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 22.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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