Betting Lines
| Spread | UCI -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | UCI -600 HARV +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HARV +5 | 119 | Lost |
| Massey | UCI -14.9 (-19.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.2 (-14.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCI -12.3 (-17.3) | 138.5 (-19.5) | 85% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCI -11.4 (-16.4) | 135.4 (-16.4) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCI -11.8 (-16.8) | 138.4 (-19.4) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCI -12.1 (-17.1) | 138.3 (-19.3) | 85% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCI | HARV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 14-14 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 5-9 |
| Home | 11-4 | 5-7 |
| Away | 9-7 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 66.8 |
| Massey | 8.5 (#61) | -1.5 (#205) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.01 (#97) | -0.42 (#215) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#92) | -0.96 (#250) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#104) | 0.491 (#196) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCI | HARV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 41.3% | 24.9% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 77.3% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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