Betting Lines
| Spread | VAL -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | VAL -400 STO +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +10 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | VAL -3.1 (+6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.1 (-3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAL -2.9 (+7.1) | 145.6 (-1.6) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAL -2.1 (+7.9) | 142.7 (+1.3) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAL -2.8 (+7.2) | 144.5 (-0.5) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAL -2.7 (+7.3) | 144.8 (-0.8) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | STO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 10-6 |
| Home | 8-7 | 7-4 |
| Away | 2-12 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 70.4 |
| Massey | -9.4 (#322) | -7.7 (#302) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.12 (#285) | -1.49 (#303) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.94 (#301) | -2.17 (#312) |
| RPI | 0.398 (#327) | 0.472 (#221) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | STO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 28.4% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 28.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 5.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 16.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.0% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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