Betting Lines
| Spread | ECU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | ECU -200 HPU +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ECU +11 | 109 | Won |
| Massey | ECU -3.5 (+7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.5 (-48.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ECU -3.6 (+7.4) | 155.6 (-46.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ECU -5.0 (+6.0) | 153.3 (-44.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ECU -3.4 (+7.6) | 154.2 (-45.2) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ECU -3.0 (+8.0) | 154.2 (-45.2) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-6 | 10-5 |
| Away | 2-9 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 77.2 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#196) | 0.2 (#169) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#140) | 1.00 (#98) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#140) | 0.76 (#126) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#185) | 0.537 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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