Betting Lines
| Spread | STMN -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | STMN -250 NDSU +205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STMN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STMN +10 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | STMN -13.4 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (-2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -11.7 (-1.7) | 149.6 (-3.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -7.4 (+2.6) | 145.6 (+0.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STMN -10.3 (-0.3) | 148.8 (-2.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -10.6 (-0.6) | 148.5 (-2.5) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | STMN 84 – 62 NDSU |
| Jan 17, 2026 | NDSU 68 – 65 STMN |
| Feb 2, 2025 | STMN 79 – 62 NDSU |
| Jan 3, 2025 | STMN 89 – 85 NDSU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | STMN 68 – 58 NDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STMN | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 12-2 | 9-4 |
| Away | 4-10 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#146) | -6.9 (#296) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.69 (#122) | -2.03 (#326) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#148) | -2.51 (#323) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#178) | 0.454 (#255) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STMN | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 41.0% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 22.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 12.8% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 77.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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