Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Under |
| Money | VILL -210 SJU +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +15 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -2.2 (+12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.9 (-12.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -1.8 (+13.2) | 149.9 (-8.9) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -2.8 (+12.2) | 147.3 (-6.3) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -1.4 (+13.6) | 148.9 (-7.9) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -1.4 (+13.6) | 150.0 (-9.0) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | SJU 89 – 57 VILL |
| Jan 18, 2026 | SJU 86 – 79 VILL |
| Feb 12, 2025 | VILL 73 – 71 SJU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | SJU 80 – 68 VILL |
| Jan 25, 2024 | SJU 70 – 50 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 7-13 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-6 |
| Away | 5-9 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 4.0 (#101) | 6.7 (#73) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#148) | 2.25 (#33) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#130) | 2.93 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#133) | 0.559 (#81) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 42.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 36.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 16.5% |
Game Analysis
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