Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | UCR -250 USD +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USD +8 | 176 | Lost |
| Massey | UCR -9.1 (-17.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.2 (+21.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -6.6 (-14.6) | 149.3 (+26.7) | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -5.4 (-13.4) | 144.9 (+31.1) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -6.8 (-14.8) | 149.8 (+26.2) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -7.9 (-15.9) | 150.6 (+25.4) | 76% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 22, 2025 | UCR 85 – 71 USD |
| Nov 18, 2021 | USD 74 – 62 UCR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | USD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 4-12 |
| Home | 9-4 | 8-9 |
| Away | 9-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 81.6 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#121) | -1.6 (#208) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.11 (#91) | -0.52 (#227) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.05 (#108) | -0.26 (#192) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#77) | 0.479 (#213) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | USD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 39.1% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 16.3% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 56.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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