Betting Lines
| Spread | USD -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | USD -340 UCR +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +14 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | USD -10.2 (-24.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (+6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USD -4.4 (-18.4) | 142.7 (+13.3) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USD -8.0 (-22.0) | 142.3 (+13.7) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USD -7.9 (-21.9) | 143.2 (+12.8) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USD -9.5 (-23.5) | 142.9 (+13.1) | 81% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2022 | USD 92 – 84 UCR |
| Nov 18, 2021 | USD 74 – 62 UCR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USD | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 5-15 |
| Home | 9-8 | 7-7 |
| Away | 2-11 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 79.1 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#197) | -5.6 (#267) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#202) | -1.27 (#279) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#203) | -1.27 (#247) |
| RPI | 0.470 (#220) | 0.438 (#261) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USD | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 26.2% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 56.8% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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