Betting Lines
| Spread | USD -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USD +12 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | USD -10.3 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.0 (+3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USD -1.9 (+10.1) | 132.2 (+3.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USD -6.7 (+5.3) | 137.4 (-1.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USD -7.2 (+4.8) | 136.4 (-0.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USD -6.3 (+5.7) | 133.0 (+3.0) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 22, 2025 | UCR 85 – 71 USD |
| Dec 21, 2022 | USD 92 – 84 UCR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USD | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 16-12 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 9-6 |
| Home | 8-6 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.9 | 65.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 64.3 |
| Massey | 4.6 (#88) | 4.2 (#93) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#114) | 1.61 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#113) | 1.82 (#64) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#225) | 0.592 (#101) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USD | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 38.4% |
| 3PT% | 48.3% | 39.2% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 11.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.0% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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