Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -20.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | DAY -2500 ALCN +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +42 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -12.8 (+29.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.2 (+7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -12.4 (+29.6) | 130.7 (+3.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -12.5 (+29.5) | 131.0 (+3.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -11.4 (+30.6) | 131.5 (+2.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -13.6 (+28.4) | 132.0 (+2.0) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 15-3 |
| Home | 14-2 | 7-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 10-10 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.0 | 70.6 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#107) | -4.3 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#165) | 0.20 (#162) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#138) | 0.21 (#169) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#155) | 0.523 (#139) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 37.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 26.6% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 41.1% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.0% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.7% | 30.4% |
Game Analysis
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