Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -23.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +10 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -17.7 (-7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.4 (+10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -14.1 (-4.1) | 145.3 (+14.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -18.2 (-8.2) | 146.7 (+13.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -14.2 (-4.2) | 147.7 (+12.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -15.4 (-5.4) | 146.3 (+13.7) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-6 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 10-7 |
| Home | 15-1 | 8-4 |
| Away | 7-2 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 9-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.2 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 14.1 (#13) | 1.4 (#152) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.02 (#12) | 0.26 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.27 (#8) | 0.39 (#152) |
| RPI | 0.667 (#4) | 0.507 (#166) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 30.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 76.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 33.1% |
Game Analysis
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