Betting Lines
| Spread | UGA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | UGA -225 UTC +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UGA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UGA +7 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | UGA -4.6 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.1 (-3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UGA -6.0 (+1.0) | 139.0 (-2.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UGA -3.7 (+3.3) | 141.4 (-4.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UGA -5.7 (+1.3) | 141.3 (-4.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UGA -5.8 (+1.2) | 141.3 (-4.3) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UGA | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 18-17 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-4 | 9-7 |
| Away | 1-10 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 74.1 |
| Massey | 2.1 (#132) | 2.3 (#125) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#126) | 0.36 (#147) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.98 (#112) | 0.49 (#144) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#121) | 0.537 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UGA | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 38.9% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 37.2% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.9% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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