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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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23–4 on winners spread MAE 8.7 27 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Harvard @ Kansas +20.0 139.4 90% 54–68 ✓
Wright State @ Miami (OH) +0.5 154.3 46% 88–80 ✗
NJIT @ South Florida +10.2 132.2 77% 73–92 ✓
Louisville @ NC State +22.8 144.7 90% 64–76 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Saint Joseph's +7.0 140.5 74% 66–83 ✓
Marist @ Rider +6.7 132.2 76% 71–77 ✓
Queens University @ Fairleigh Dickinson -2.6 153.0 36% 82–73 ✓
Yale @ Monmouth -14.4 140.7 16% 76–44 ✓
Western Kentucky @ South Carolina -0.3 137.9 48% 58–65 ✗
New Mexico State @ North Carolina A&T -7.7 142.2 21% 85–76 ✓
Charlotte @ UAB +6.2 142.9 72% 68–76 ✓
Morgan State @ Arizona +24.9 160.7 91% 68–93 ✓
Texas Southern @ Wichita State +12.0 132.6 88% 56–65 ✓
North Texas @ UTSA -10.0 132.2 17% 78–54 ✓
Butler @ Creighton +3.1 137.1 68% 56–78 ✓
Illinois @ Missouri -3.8 154.9 32% 71–93 ✗
Weber State @ BYU +8.9 141.6 80% 57–63 ✓
George Washington @ Washington State +6.5 141.5 75% 64–66 ✓
Hartford @ San Francisco +28.0 138.3 91% 53–85 ✓
Kent State @ UTEP -7.2 136.9 24% 47–46 ✓
Portland State @ California Baptist +6.4 142.8 72% 74–72 ✗
Southern Miss @ UNLV +3.6 143.7 67% 63–74 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Stanford +5.0 132.9 70% 62–75 ✓
Pepperdine @ Hawai'i +4.3 143.4 74% 70–76 ✓
Coppin State @ George Mason +10.3 152.5 82% 53–91 ✓
Iona @ Seattle U -5.7 143.8 24% 83–72 ✓
Bucknell @ Rutgers +16.9 132.9 89% 50–85 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.