Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | GMU -700 COPP +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +38 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -10.0 (+28.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.3 (-13.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -10.2 (+27.8) | 152.3 (-8.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -10.3 (+27.7) | 152.5 (-8.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -9.4 (+28.6) | 153.2 (-9.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -12.0 (+26.0) | 151.5 (-7.5) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 21, 2024 | GMU 93 – 55 COPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | COPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 4-10 |
| Home | 14-2 | 4-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-16 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 83.2 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#149) | -4.1 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#137) | -0.25 (#202) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#144) | -0.56 (#218) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#80) | 0.512 (#157) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | COPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 20.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 62.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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