Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Over |
| Money | HAW -205 PEPP +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAW +6 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | HAW -3.8 (+2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.1 (+3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -4.4 (+1.6) | 144.9 (+1.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -7.0 (-1.0) | 143.7 (+2.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -4.3 (+1.7) | 142.5 (+3.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -4.3 (+1.7) | 143.4 (+2.6) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 2-14 |
| Home | 13-5 | 8-8 |
| Away | 6-4 | 0-12 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 76.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.0 | 81.8 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#130) | 3.2 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#193) | -0.08 (#185) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#151) | 0.29 (#156) |
| RPI | 0.461 (#245) | 0.484 (#208) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.3% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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